My $100-offer
From Dec 2009, I will accept every month the most courageous bets on the Higgs discovery up to 100 US-Dollar (those who share my opinion of its non-existence may of course join me and increase the amount).Therefore, the CERN experts (about 3400 permanent employees and about 8000 guest scientists) are invited to make extra money if they believe in this possible success of their work – inside information is not illegal! If you don't have a clue instead, you shouldn't risk too much or get informed before betting.
Of course, technical incidents may delay the discovery. If you don't expect the discovery until 2010 or 2011, you may bet on the Higgs detection until the end of 2012, and very cautious persons may believe that the discovery might not take place until as late as 2013.
You may announce your bet at the discussion forum without commitment. The real bet is carried out at the prediction market intrade.com, see Place your bet. Since the most courageous bets offer much less than bank intersts at the moment, I cannot accept all of them. I do continue however to offer the mentioned amount. At the end of 2010, due to wins an amount of 100 US-Dollar was relaesed, which I continue to put into the bet. Unfortunately, at the moment there are no serious offers any more in favour of the discovery. Anyone interested is invited to contact me, also using other platforms than intrade.
Here is an overview on my total bets US-Dollar until today:
| Date | until 2010 | until 2011 | until 2012 | until 2013 | Sum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-12-12 | 73.62 | 41.30 | 25.20 | 44.60 | 184.72 |
| 2010-01-16 | 81.82 | 76.20 | 50.80 | 86.20 | 295.02 |
| 2010-02-20 | 90.62 | 125.80 | 50.80 | 132.60 | 399.82 |
| 2010-03-20 | 90.62 | 200.40 | 50.80 | 153.90 | 495.72 |
| 2010-04-17 | 100.02 | 279.80 | 50.80 | 168.10 | 598.72 |
| 2010-05-15 | 100.02 | 354.50 | 58.40 | 181.99 | 694.91 |
| 2010-06-19 | 100.02 | 444.80 | 66.00 | 188.99 | 799.81 |
| 2010-07-17 | 100.02 | 511.20 | 73.60 | 209.89 | 894.71 |
| 2010-08-14 | 100.02 | 557.20 | 118.60 | 128.39 | 994.21 |
The total amount of my current bets is shown in the following:
This is my Research page in gravitational physics.
This is my book Vom Urknall zum Durchknall (in German, Springer 2010).
